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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-08-28T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-08-28T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17609/-1
CME Note: The source is a M4.7 class flare peaking at 2021-08-28T06:11Z from active region 12860 located at S28E00 at the time of the eruption. This eruption is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO/AIA wavelengths. An EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211 starting around 2021-08-28T06:00Z, propagating northward, followed by a post-eruptive arcade starting around 2021-08-28T07:20Z. A dimming region is visible above the brightening active region during the EUV wave. Some plasma material is also visible lifting off during this eruption shortly after the flare peaks. Arrival characterized by slow magnetic field amplitude rise (reaching only 6.5 nT), accompanied by density/temperature rise, followed by field component rotation, density/tempurature drop, and speed rise. Followed by a SSBC at 2021-09-03T12:12Z, which obscures the later part of the ICME arrival signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-03T06:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-02T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Wednesday, September 1, 2021 3:38 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) 
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert
 
This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-09-02T10:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 4
probability_of_arrival: 40

---

:Issued: 2021 Aug 28 2052 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The M4.7 flare, which originated from NOAA AR 2860 and peaked at 06:11 UT on August
28 was associated with the coronal dimming and EIT wave, the on disc signatures of
the CME. The associated CME (first time seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at
about 07:48 UT) had projected line of the sight speed of about 350 km/s and angular
width of about 180 degrees.
This faint CME could arrive to Earth on 2nd September.
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Lead Time: 46.68 hour(s)
Difference: 20.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-09-01T07:38Z
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